2026 · Wk 1

Insights

Research any player, explore trends.

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Draft deep cuts · 2025

Opportunity + efficiency leaders from prior season. Draft context, not a call.

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All QB RB WR TE

WOPR proxy (WR/TE opportunity share)

Opportunity Score (proxy)

1.5·target-share + 0.7·deep-target-share + 0.6·rush-share — an Opportunity PROXY, not WOPR

1Drake MayeNE0.1317 gms
2Taysom HillNO0.1113 gms
3Bo NixQUESTIONABLEDEN0.1117 gms
4Justin FieldsNYJ0.109 gms
5Patrick MahomesQUESTIONABLEKC0.0914 gms

RZ target share (passing TD-upside)

Redzone target share

player's share of the team's redzone targets (min 3 targets) — passing TD-upside predictor

1Christian McCaffreySF31%17 gms
2Jahmyr GibbsDET29%17 gms
3Bijan RobinsonATL24%17 gms
4Kenneth GainwellPIT23%17 gms
5De'Von AchaneQUESTIONABLEMIA18%16 gms

RZ carry share (rushing TD-upside)

Redzone carry share

player's share of the team's redzone carries (min 3 carries) — goal-line rush TD-upside predictor

1Jalen HurtsPHI33%16 gms
2Tyler ShoughNO32%11 gms
3Justin FieldsNYJ31%9 gms
4Jaxson DartNYG29%14 gms
5Josh AllenBUF28%17 gms

RZ touch share (goal-line role)

Redzone touch share

player's share of the team's redzone touches (min 3 touches)

1Jalen HurtsPHI21%16 gms
2Justin FieldsNYJ20%9 gms
3Tyler ShoughNO20%11 gms
4Josh AllenBUF18%17 gms
5Jaxson DartNYG17%14 gms

Buy-low: underperformed expected FP

PPR under xFP (buy-low)

actual box-score PPR minus opportunity-based expected fantasy points (xFP values every carry / target / pass attempt at the league rate for its field zone + down; excludes 2-pt conversions and return TDs). Negative = producing BELOW the opportunity curve — due for positive regression; a buy-low watch. Descriptive, not a start/sit call.

1Cam WardTEN-50.7186.7 FP · 237.4 xFP
2Brady CookNYJ-38.228.5 FP · 66.6 xFP
3Joe FlaccoCIN-37.5146.7 FP · 184.2 xFP
4Geno SmithLV-31.6173.9 FP · 205.5 xFP
5Max BrosmerMIN-27.94.2 FP · 32.2 xFP

Sell-high: overperformed expected FP

PPR over xFP (sell-high)

actual box-score PPR minus opportunity-based expected fantasy points (xFP values every carry / target / pass attempt at the league rate for its field zone + down; excludes 2-pt conversions and return TDs). Positive = producing ABOVE the opportunity curve — efficiency or luck; a regression-DOWN watch. Descriptive, not a start/sit call.

1Josh AllenBUF+76.8364.6 FP · 287.8 xFP
2Drake MayeNE+66.5352.0 FP · 285.5 xFP
3Matthew StaffordLAR+51.5350.4 FP · 298.9 xFP
4Lamar JacksonBAL+42.6214.9 FP · 172.3 xFP
5Jaxson DartNYG+42.0241.6 FP · 199.6 xFP

Expected PPR/game (opportunity quality)

xFP per game

opportunity-based expected PPR points divided by games played — the size of the weekly role, independent of missed weeks. Descriptive, not a projection.

1Patrick MahomesQUESTIONABLEKC19.7214 gms
2Dak PrescottQUESTIONABLEDAL18.2817 gms
3Bo NixQUESTIONABLEDEN18.2417 gms
4Trevor LawrenceJAX18.0117 gms
5Brock PurdySF17.789 gms

Snap % (three-down vs committee role)

Snap share

share of offensive snaps — on-field role

1Bo NixQUESTIONABLEDEN100%17 gms
2Caleb WilliamsCHI99%17 gms
3Kyler MurrayARI99%5 gms
4Matthew StaffordLAR99%17 gms
5Jared GoffDET99%17 gms

Target share (passing-game role)

Target share

share of team targets — passing-game role

Deep-target share (big-play role, proxy)

Deep-target share (proxy)

player deep targets / team deep targets — a deep-target PROXY, not air-yards share

aDOT: average target depth (true air yards)

Receiver aDOT (air yards)

mean air yards per target — TRUE aDOT from nflverse (min 20 targets). Row carries air-yards share, YAC per reception + a left/middle/right split.

1Tyquan ThorntonKC26.8911 gms
2Kyle WilliamsNE19.0511 gms
3Alec PierceQUESTIONABLEIND18.9615 gms
4Christian WatsonGB17.7610 gms
5Isaiah BondCLE17.0714 gms

Air-yards share (downfield role, WOPR-style)

Air-yards share

player air yards / team air yards — TRUE air-yards share from nflverse (min 20 targets).

QB aDOT: how far downfield he throws

QB aDOT (air yards)

mean air yards per pass attempt — TRUE aDOT from nflverse (min 60 attempts). Row carries deep-rate (air yards ≥ 20) + a left/middle/right split.

1Marcus MariotaWSH10.2010 gms
2Jameis WinstonNYG9.383 gms
3Matthew StaffordLAR9.1417 gms
4Drake MayeNE9.1317 gms
5Jalen HurtsPHI9.0116 gms

QB deep-pass rate (proxy)

deep passes / tagged pass attempts (min 40 attempts) — a throw-depth PROXY, not aDOT

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