Usage Risers and Fallers: What the Snap and Target Trends Say Through Week 9

Usage is the part of a fantasy profile that moves first. A back who starts handling 24 touches a game, or a receiver whose target share jumps nine points, is telling you about his next few weeks before the points catch up. So every week we read our usage-momentum board, which tracks how four things trend over a rolling four-week window: snap share, target share, opportunities (carries plus targets), and red-zone touches. Below are the biggest movers by position through Week 9, with the exact window-average-to-current number behind each one.

One honest boundary first, the same one we hold every week. This edition describes which stat moved, not why it moved. We can show you that a snap share collapsed or a target share doubled, because that is in the data. We do not claim the reason (an injury, a benching, a game script that forced the pass) because that causal data is not in our pipeline yet. When you see a usage cliff here, read it as a flag to go check the why yourself, not as our explanation of it.

And the credibility layer, because a usage read is only worth the record behind it. Our graded start/sit calls across 2024 and 2025 hit 77.2% overall on 15,216 calls, and we publish that number win or lose. Only players who clear a usage noise floor make this board (at least three weeks of data and a real snap count), so a single-game blip does not sneak a name on.

Risers

Running back. Devin Singletary is the sharpest climb at the position: opportunities up from a four-week average of 12.3 to 24, snap share from 54% to 93%, and target share from 8% to 11%. That is close to a doubled workload in the latest week, and it is the first riser to note before you set a lineup. Bijan Robinson is the high-volume riser still climbing, opportunities 20.5 to 26, red-zone touches 1.5 to 6, and target share 13% to 26% on a steady 82% snap share.

Wide receiver. Ja'Marr Chase is the bankable name still climbing, his target share up from 34% to 43% and red-zone touches from 2 to 3, even as his snap share held steady in the mid-80s. Puka Nacua moved hardest by volume, opportunities from 13 to 21 and target share from 38% to 46% on a 93% snap share. Chimere Dike jumped in playing time off a smaller base, snap share from 40% to 82% with opportunities 2.3 to 6 and target share 6% to 15%.

Tight end. Cade Otton is the most usable riser here: target share up from 10% to 27%, opportunities 2.8 to 8, and red-zone touches 1 to 3, the kind of move that matters most at a volume-dependent position. Darren Waller climbed even harder on targets, his target share from 11% to 27% and opportunities from 4 to 10, though off a snap share still near half the snaps. Gunnar Helm rose more gently, target share 12% to 23% and opportunities 4.3 to 9 on a snap share that eased back to 64%.

Fallers

Running back. Josh Jacobs is one of the sharpest drops at the position: opportunities from a four-week average of 16.3 to 4, snap share from 46% to 15%, and target share from 11% to zero. That is a near-total loss of the workload in the latest week, and it is the first name to run down before you trust him in a lineup. Jahmyr Gibbs is the softer, read-it-carefully move: opportunities 27.7 to 21 and target share 13% to 4%, though 21 opportunities is still elite volume and his red-zone touches actually ticked up from 5.7 to 7. Bam Knight fell off a smaller base, opportunities 11.3 to 5 and snap share 40% to 22%.

Wide receiver. Jameson Williams is one of the steepest declines among the rostered wideouts: target share from 20% to 8% and opportunities from 6 to 3, even though he stayed on the field at an 83% snap share, so this is a target move, not a playing-time one. George Pickens slid as well, snap share 68% to 57%, target share 20% to 14%, and opportunities 7 to 4.

Tight end. Dalton Kincaid gave back the role he was gaining a few weeks ago: target share from 18% to 10%, opportunities 5.7 to 3, and red-zone touches 1.7 to zero. Will Mallory carries the position's steepest usage drop, snap share from 34% to 15% and opportunities from 3 to zero. Hunter Henry declined more gently, target share 16% to 8% and opportunities 4.5 to 3.

A note on quarterbacks

Quarterback usage momentum is mostly noise. Starters play close to 100% of snaps every week, so the only part of their usage that actually moves is designed runs and scrambles, and that swings game to game. The one clean signal through Week 9 is Tyler Shough, whose opportunities climbed from a four-week average of 6 to 10 on a near-full snap share. At the other end, Tyler Huntley saw his snap share fall from 73% to 20%, the kind of drop that only shows up at the position when the job itself changes hands. We flag quarterbacks lightly on purpose rather than forcing four names onto a board that does not really have them.