Usage Risers and Fallers: What the Snap and Target Trends Say Through Week 5

Usage is the part of a fantasy profile that moves first. A back who starts handling 28 touches a game, or a receiver whose target share jumps ten points, is telling you about his next few weeks before the points catch up. So every week we read our usage-momentum board, which tracks how four things trend over a rolling four-week window: snap share, target share, opportunities (carries plus targets), and red-zone touches. Below are the biggest movers by position through Week 5, with the exact window-average-to-current number behind each one.

One honest boundary first. This edition describes which stat moved, not why it moved. We can show you that a snap share collapsed or a target share doubled, because that is in the data. We do not claim the reason (an injury, a benching, a game script that forced the pass) because that causal data is not in our pipeline yet. When you see a usage cliff here, read it as a flag to go check the why yourself, not as our explanation of it.

And the credibility layer, because a usage read is only worth the record behind it. Our graded start/sit calls across 2024 and 2025 hit 77.2% overall on 15,216 calls, and we publish that number win or lose. Only players who clear a usage noise floor make this board (at least three weeks of data and a real snap count), so a single-game blip does not sneak a name on.

Risers

Running back. Kyle Monangai is the clearest riser at the position. His opportunities jumped from a four-week average of 17.7 to 31 in the latest week, his red-zone touches went from 4.7 to 8, and his snap share climbed from 40% to 54%. Braelon Allen moved almost as hard: 66% to 86% snap share and 14.3 to 28 opportunities. Both are volume stories, the kind of workload bump that shows up in a box score fast.

Wide receiver. Malik Nabers leads the whole board: target share up from 26% to 39%, opportunities from 9.3 to 20, and snap share from 80% to 90%. That is a true number-one workload trending in the right direction. Tyquan Thornton is the speculative name, his target share nearly doubling from 16% to 30% and opportunities going from 4.7 to 8, though off a smaller snap base (56% to 63%).

Tight end. Gavin Bartholomew has the single biggest snap-share swing on the board, from 23% to 62%, with his target share going 6% to 21% and opportunities 1.8 to 6. It is a small sample at a volatile position, but the role is clearly expanding. The more bankable name is Kyle Pitts Sr., whose snap share rose 54% to 67%, red-zone touches 0.5 to 2, and target share 13% to 18%. For a player whose fantasy value lives and dies on volume, that is the direction you want.

Fallers

Wide receiver. Rashee Rice is the sharpest drop anywhere on the board: snap share from 55% to 10%, target share from 18% to zero, and opportunities from 5 to zero. That is a near-total usage cliff in the latest week. We are not going to tell you why, because that is not in our data, but it is the first name to run down before you set a lineup.

Running back. Kenneth Walker III carries the largest negative momentum score at the position, though the move is more about the passing game than the ground game: his target share fell from 12% to 4% and red-zone touches from 6.7 to 4, while his opportunities barely moved (25.7 to 23). Ashton Jeanty is the cleaner decline, with snap share down 71% to 53%, opportunities 22.3 to 16, and red-zone touches 3.5 to 1. The volume that made him a usage darling earlier in the year has thinned out.

Tight end. Two of the position's best are trending down, but both off elite baselines. Brock Bowers has the board's steepest TE momentum score, yet the actual move is mild: opportunities 11.7 to 10 and snap share 77% to 70%, still a 28% target share. Travis Kelce slid from 5.7 opportunities to 4 and his red-zone touches to zero. Neither is a drop to worry about in isolation; they are soft declines off high usage, not cliffs.

A note on quarterbacks

Quarterback usage momentum is mostly noise. Starters play close to 100% of snaps every week, so the only part of their usage that actually moves is designed runs and scrambles, and that swings game to game. The one clean signal through Week 5 is Kyler Murray, whose rushing opportunities climbed from a four-week average of 6 to 10. We flag the position lightly on purpose rather than forcing four names onto a board that does not really have them.