FFMatchup 2026 player graphic for DeVonta Smith of the Philadelphia Eagles.

PLAYER OUTLOOK

DeVonta Smith Fantasy 2026: Does A.J. Brown's Exit Make Him a WR1?

DeVonta Smith was already a near-equal downfield alpha in Philadelphia, second only to A.J. Brown in air-yards share, and with Brown gone he inherits the biggest vacated target share in the league. The bull case is a clear alpha role. The honest caps are a run-heavy Jalen Hurts offense, a red-zone role that runs through Dallas Goedert, and a boom-or-bust graded record.

FFMatchupAugust 12, 2026

2025 by week

DeVonta Smith: fantasy points, matchups, and our calls

11.9 PPR/g · best 33.3

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Fantasy playoffs · W15–179.2 PPR/g over 3 gamesbelow their 11.9 season averageour calls: 1/3 hit

Our weekly call: Start Flex Sit✓ hit ✗ miss playoff weeksSmith: 40% on 30 callsSee the receipts →

DeVonta Smith spent his career sharing a passing game with one of the loudest target hogs in football, and 2026 is the year that changes. Even as the nominal second option he ran neck-and-neck with A.J. Brown for the team's air-yards lead in 2025, a razor-thin second at 32.2% to Brown's 33.8%, catching 77 of 113 targets for 1,008 yards and 4 touchdowns across a full 17 games. The market prices him as a WR13, an overall PPR ADP of 23.8, a low-end WR1. The reason the price sits there and not higher is the same reason the upside is real: the target tree just reshaped, and Smith is the one it opens up for.

32.2%

DeVonta Smith's share of the Philadelphia air yards in 2025, a near-equal second to A.J. Brown's 33.8%.

The vacated targets are the whole thesis

A.J. Brown is no longer in Philadelphia; our data now lists him with a new team. In 2025 he drew 121 targets for 1,003 yards and 7 touchdowns on a 33.8% air-yards share as a Philadelphia receiver, which means a downfield workload nearly identical to Smith's own is now vacated. Smith was already a near-equal downfield alpha at 32.2% on an 11.99-yard aDOT, a hair behind Brown's 33.8%, so this is not a case of a complementary piece hoping to grow into a role. It is the established downfield alpha of the offense getting the second big target share added on top of his own. That is the cleanest bull case a receiver outlook can have: proven role, plus proven vacated volume, going to the same player.

The catch: this is a run-first offense with a red-zone tight end

Here is where the WR1 price meets reality. Two things cap Smith's ceiling even with Brown gone. The first is the quarterback's volume. Jalen Hurts threw just 452 times in 2025 at a 9.01-yard aDOT with a 14.4% deep-ball rate, an accurate, aggressive downfield passer, but one who operates in a run-leaning, RPO-heavy offense that simply does not generate the raw pass attempts a target hog needs to post 160-target seasons. The second is the red zone. Dallas Goedert scored 11 touchdowns on 82 targets over 15 games in 2025, vacuuming up the short scoring chances, which is a big reason Smith's own touchdown total sat at just 4 despite the target lead. Add Saquon Barkley drawing 50 targets out of the backfield, and the target volume that opens up is real but not unlimited.

Fit chart plotting Jalen Hurts's average throw depth against each Philadelphia pass-catcher's average catch depth. — Jalen Hurts throws at a 9.01-yard average depth with a 14.4% deep-ball rate. DeVonta Smith catches at 11.99 yards, the deepest role left in the offense now that A.J. Brown has moved on. The vertical targets funnel to Smith.

The receipts say the ceiling comes in bursts

The graded record is the honest counterweight to the vacated-targets excitement. Our start/sit calls on Smith cleared the line in just 12 of 30, a 40% two-season hit rate, the profile of a boom-or-bust receiver whose scoring arrives in bursts rather than on a weekly schedule. That fits a downfield player on a run-first team: the yardage is there when the deep shots connect, and the quiet weeks come when the offense leans on Barkley and the ball stays on the ground. A larger target share should lift the floor, but the record is a reminder that role and consistency are not the same thing, and every one of those calls is graded on his player page.

The read

Smith is the rare bet where the bull case is structural, not hopeful. He already ran a razor-thin second in Philadelphia air-yards share at 32.2% on an 11.99-yard aDOT, just behind A.J. Brown's 33.8%, and with Brown gone that near-identical 33.8% share and 121 targets are vacated into the same offense, for the same downfield alpha. That is why the WR13 price is fair rather than a reach. The honest caps are real and worth pricing in. Jalen Hurts threw only 452 times in a run-first offense, so the raw pass volume is capped. Dallas Goedert is the red-zone finisher who scored 11 times in 2025, which pressures Smith's touchdown upside. And the graded record is a boom-or-bust 40%, the mark of a receiver whose weeks swing hard. At a WR13 price you are buying a clear alpha role with a genuine target-share bump and accepting the volatility of a downfield profile on a ground-leaning team. We will grade every call on the record.