
Why: soft matchup





vs SF: allows 23.5 PPR/g to RB, rank 10/32 (Soft). Trailing RB PPR allowed per game, weeks before 2026 W2. Descriptive context, never a model input.
Primary passer Tua Tagovailoa. 2025 share of pass targets to RB (101/445). Descriptive context, never a model input.
2026 Week 1 consensus PPR projection (RB4), from tank01 getNFLProjections (consensus, PPR). Descriptive draft-prep context, not a start/sit call.
| Game | As | Site | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | PPR | Half | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W16 | vs | 17 | 120 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 70 | 0 | 31.0 | 28.0 | 25.0 |
Small sample (1 game). Defense roster/scheme turnover means the unit from prior seasons may differ significantly. Descriptive context only, never a model input or driver of the start/sit call.
Snap %, target share and opportunities are descriptive usage: how the offense has deployed this player, not a forecast. Weeks shown: most recent 16.
RBschedule vs the rest of the league: 100 = league-average, >100 softer, <100 tougher; rank 1 = easiest of 32. Projected on 2025 defense. low-confidence early-season estimate. Descriptive context, not a start/sit call.
- Jaylen Wright figures to be part of a ground attack in Miami: Wright played just 127 offensive snaps in 2025 but could become a workhorse if De'Von Achane gets hurt.
source ↗Over/under: 48.3 (4th highest) Win probability: Texans 53% (15th highest) Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders Projected score: Raiders 24, Dolphins 18 Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, De'Von Achane, Brock Bowers Fantasy scoop: Jeanty (ankle) is
source ↗| Week | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | Snap% | Tgt% | PPR | Half | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W1 | @ | 11 | 36 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 0% | 19% | – | – | – |
| 2025 W17 | vs | 18 | 83 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 75% | 14% | 14.2 | 12.7 | 11.2 |
| 2025 W16 | vs | 15 | 81 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 71% | 11% | 18.0 | 16.5 | 15.0 |
| 2025 W15 | @ | 12 | 60 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 67 | 0 | 80% | 24% | 18.7 | 15.7 | 12.7 |
| 2025 W14 | @ | 7 | 92 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 34% | 5% | 17.5 | 17.0 | 16.5 |
| 2025 W13 | vs | 22 | 134 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 73% | 5% | 19.4 | 19.4 | 19.4 |
| 2025 W11 | vs | 21 | 120 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 80% | 25% | 21.5 | 19.0 | 16.5 |
| 2025 W10 | vs | 22 | 174 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 51 | 0 | 89% | 29% | 40.5 | 37.5 | 34.5 |
| 2025 W9 | vs | 14 | 67 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 91% | 27% | 16.6 | 13.6 | 10.6 |
| 2025 W8 | @ | 18 | 67 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 67% | 27% | 20.1 | 17.6 | 15.1 |
| 2025 W7 | @ | 13 | 82 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 55% | 17% | 12.8 | 11.3 | 9.8 |
| 2025 W6 | vs | 16 | 128 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 90% | 21% | 31.0 | 29.0 | 27.0 |
| 2025 W5 | @ | 10 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 30 | 1 | 87% | 21% | 16.6 | 13.6 | 10.6 |
| 2025 W4 | vs | 20 | 99 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 76% | 8% | 17.1 | 16.6 | 16.1 |
| 2025 W3 | @ | 12 | 62 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 77% | 27% | 16.1 | 12.6 | 9.1 |
| 2025 W2 | vs | 11 | 30 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 92 | 1 | 93% | 33% | 26.2 | 22.2 | 18.2 |
| 2025 W1 | @ | 7 | 55 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 73% | 14% | 16.5 | 15.0 | 13.5 |
| 2024 W18 | @ | 11 | 121 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 70% | 0% | 18.1 | 18.1 | 18.1 |
Descriptive per-week usage and PPR output. Situational PBP cuts (red-zone, 3rd-down) and EPA/touch are planned for v2.
Based on 33 graded calls.
| Week | Opp | Call | Proj | Finish | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W17 | START | 14.7 | RB17 (14.2) | ✓ | |
| 2025 W16 | START | 16.2 | RB14 (18.0) | ✓ | |
| 2025 W15 | START | 18.0 | RB10 (18.7) | ✓ | |
| 2025 W14 | START | 20.2 | RB9 (17.5) | ✓ | |
| 2025 W13 | START | 20.2 | RB6 (19.4) | ✓ | |
| 2025 W11 | START | 19.0 | RB6 (21.5) | ✓ | |
| 2025 W10 | START | 17.3 | RB2 (40.5) | ✓ | |
| 2025 W9 | START | 17.0 | RB10 (16.6) | ✓ | |
| 2025 W8 | START | 16.3 | RB7 (20.1) | ✓ | |
| 2025 W7 | START | 16.7 | RB15 (12.8) | ✓ |
✓ and ✗ grade where a player finished, not his points: a call hits when he finished startable (top-24 RB/WR, top-12 QB/TE), even if he came in under his projection. How we grade