FFMatchup 2026 graphic for Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith of the Philadelphia Eagles.

QB ↔ WR FIT

Jalen Hurts, aDOT, and DeVonta Smith's WR1 Case in Philly's New Room

A.J. Brown is in New England and Jahan Dotson is gone, so DeVonta Smith inherits the alpha role and 37.7% of the vacated air yards. The catch is the man throwing it: Jalen Hurts ran a 9.01 average depth of target on low volume in a run-first, quarterback-rushing offense. Here is the honest WR1 case at a WR13 price.

FFMatchupAugust 10, 2026

2025 by week

DeVonta Smith: fantasy points, matchups, and our calls

11.9 PPR/g · best 33.3

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Fantasy playoffs · W15–179.2 PPR/g over 3 gamesbelow their 11.9 season averageour calls: 1/3 hit

Our weekly call: Start Flex Sit✓ hit ✗ miss playoff weeksSmith: 40% on 30 callsSee the receipts →

Philadelphia's receiver room looks nothing like last year's. A.J. Brown is a New England Patriot, Jahan Dotson is gone too, and DeVonta Smith is now the undisputed alpha for Jalen Hurts. The market has already moved: Smith goes off the board at a 24.6 PPR ADP, WR13. The question is whether that price is a discount on a rising target hog or the ceiling for a receiver stuck in a low-volume passing attack.

37.7%

Share of the air yards vacated by A.J. Brown and Jahan Dotson that Smith is the nearest-role fit to absorb. A.J. Brown alone owned a 33.8% air-yards share in 2025.

The room emptied out around him

This is the cleanest part of the case. In 2025 A.J. Brown ran a 33.8% air-yards share on 121 targets, and Dotson added another chunk of the field-stretching work. Both are gone. Our nearest-role estimate has Smith absorbing 37.7% of that vacated air-yard share, and the team-level tell agrees: Philadelphia funneled a 62.6% target share to its wide receivers, an elevated, funnel-shaped rate. With the depth chart cleared, most of that WR volume now runs through one man.

Hurts throws a short, low-volume ball

Here is the brake, and it is the whole point of the title. Hurts is not a volume passer and he is not a downfield one. In 2025 he threw 452 attempts at a 9.01 true average depth of target, with only 14.4% of throws traveling deep. Philadelphia runs first through Saquon Barkley, and Hurts himself vultures the scoring: 27 red-zone carries and 12 goal-line touches. A low pass count plus a quarterback who keeps the ball at the goal line is the structural cap on any Eagles receiver's touchdown equity.

9.01

Hurts' true average depth of target in 2025. Smith's own 11.99 aDOT already runs deeper than his quarterback's average throw, so the alpha role, not scheme depth, is what has to carry the value.

FFMatchup aDOT fit chart for the Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts throws at a 9.01-yard average depth of target, shown as a reference line, with his 2025 pass-catchers plotted at their catch aDOT: Dallas Goedert 7.11, Dontayvion Wicks 11.24, Hollywood Brown 11.3, and DeVonta Smith 11.99. — Where Hurts throws versus where each catcher works, on 2025 true aDOT. Smith runs the deepest of the room, past his quarterback's average throw.

Smith's own profile is already an alpha's

Smith does not need a role change, he needs the leftover targets. In 2025 he posted 113 targets, 77 catches and 1,008 yards on an 11.99 aDOT, with a 32.2% air-yards share even alongside A.J. Brown. He is the passing-down engine too, at a 32.3% target share on third down, and he saw 10 red-zone targets on the year. The one number that stings: just 4 touchdowns on those 1,008 yards, a direct consequence of the goal-line offense described above.

And the others

The supporting cast is why Smith's target share should climb rather than get split. Hollywood Brown is a vertical complement on an 11.3 aDOT but goes undrafted in most formats near WR111. Rookie Makai Lemon is the intriguing dart at a WR45 ADP, likely a slot-and-develop role in year one. Dallas Goedert works the short middle on a 7.11 aDOT. None of them profiles as a target thief at Smith's tier. This is one alpha and a set of role players.

See DeVonta Smith's page