Dallas Goedert Fantasy 2026: A Touchdown-Dependent TE1 at a TE12 Price?

Dallas Goedert spent 2025 doing the one thing that most reliably wins fantasy weeks at tight end: he scored. Across 15 games he caught 60 of 82 targets for 591 yards and 11 touchdowns, good for 185.1 PPR points on an 85 percent snap share. The yardage is modest, but the touchdown total is not, and that is the whole story with Goedert. He is going as a back-end starter, a TE12 price at an overall PPR ADP of 117, which is a value if the scoring role holds and a trap if it does not. There is a real reason to think the role is sticky, and a real reason to be careful about the number of touchdowns underneath it.

The bull case: a locked red-zone role, with more looks possibly opening up

Goedert is not a volume tight end, he is a scoring one. In 2025 he drew 15 red-zone targets and took 8 goal-line touches, the profile of a player his offense trusts inside the 10. That role is the safest kind of tight end production because touchdowns, not yards, are what separate the position. The case gets more interesting this offseason: A.J. Brown left for New England, and his 121 targets in Philadelphia are now vacated. Somebody absorbs those looks, and an established red-zone hub is a logical place for a share of them to land. At a TE12 price you are paying a streamer's cost for a tight end with a proven scoring role on a good offense, with a path to modestly more volume.

The competitor check: DeVonta Smith owns the air, Goedert owns the end zone

The target hierarchy in Philadelphia is clear, and it is worth being honest about where Goedert sits in it. DeVonta Smith is the alpha receiver, with 113 targets, 77 catches and 1,008 yards in 2025, the team's clear target-volume leader. With A.J. Brown gone to New England, Smith also inherits the downfield passing game outright: Brown led the team in air-yards share in 2025 and Smith was right behind him, so the deep-target crown is now Smith's. What Smith did not do is score: he found the end zone just 4 times on all that volume, which is exactly why Goedert's red-zone role is valuable rather than redundant. The two are complementary, not competing for the same touches. Smith moves the ball between the 20s, Goedert finishes drives. Smith is the clear No. 1 and Goedert is the established scoring option behind him, which is a stable place to be for a tight end you are drafting as a TE1 on the cheap.

The honest cap: touchdown-dependence on a run-first offense

Here is the part the TE12 price does not fully resolve. Eleven touchdowns on 591 yards is a touchdown-heavy line, and touchdown rate is the least sticky thing a player does year to year. If the scoring regresses even modestly toward the yardage, a 60-catch, 591-yard tight end is a back-end starter, not a difference-maker. The offense does not do him many favors on volume either: Jalen Hurts threw just 454 attempts in 2025 in a run-leaning attack built around Saquon Barkley, so the target pie is smaller than it is in a pass-first scheme. Our graded record fits the boom-or-bust read, too. Our start calls on Goedert hit only 33 percent across our 2024-25 graded record, a sign his big weeks were hard to time even though the season totals looked strong. The role is real. The number of touchdowns holding is the bet.

What it means for his 2026 price

Goedert is a fair swing at a back-end tight end price, with the ceiling framed honestly. The path to a return is straightforward: if the red-zone role holds and even a slice of A.J. Brown's vacated targets flows his way, a proven scoring tight end at a TE12 cost looks like a steal. Just draft him knowing what he is. DeVonta Smith owns the air in Philadelphia, Jalen Hurts runs a run-first offense that caps the target volume, and 11 touchdowns on a modest yardage floor is a line with regression risk baked in. Buy the role and the discount, not a repeat of the touchdown total.