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Jaylen Warren
RB · PIT
SIT
upcoming
2026 Week 2
Why: limited usage
2026 Wk 2
Reads
analysis
PLAYER OUTLOOK
Rico Dowdle Fantasy 2026: Is the Steelers RB a Sleeper or a Committee Trap?
FFMatchup · Sep 10, 2026
PLAYER OUTLOOK
Jaylen Warren Fantasy 2026: Is the Steelers RB a Value Now That He Leads the Backfield?
FFMatchup · Sep 2, 2026
DEEP STAT
The Goal-Line Running Backs: Who Owns the Touchdown Equity for 2026
FFMatchup · Jul 26, 2026
Matchup & environment
contextImplied team total
–
Vegas-implied points (game environment)
vs NE: allows 18.8 PPR/g to RB, rank 28/32 (Tough). Trailing RB PPR allowed per game, weeks before 2026 W2. Descriptive context, never a model input.
PIT targets to RB
BoostPIT routes 26% of pass targets to RB this season (27% over the trailing 8 wk), +1.4 SD vs the league RB average.
Primary passer Aaron Rodgers. 2025 share of pass targets to RB (132/514). Descriptive context, never a model input.
Draft outlook
contextProj12.8RB22
2026 Week 1 consensus PPR projection (RB22), from tank01 getNFLProjections (consensus, PPR). Descriptive draft-prep context, not a start/sit call.
History vs NE
contextvs NE: 2 games, 10.6 PPR avg
Small sample (2 games). Defense roster/scheme turnover means the unit from prior seasons may differ significantly. Descriptive context only, never a model input or driver of the start/sit call.
Usage & opportunity trends
contextSnap %0%
Target share16%
Opportunities16
Snap %, target share and opportunities are descriptive usage: how the offense has deployed this player, not a forecast. Weeks shown: most recent 16.
Schedule strength (SOS)
contextRest of season
98Hard
#27 of 32 · 16 games
Fantasy playoffs
102Average
#13 of 32 · 3 games
Full season
98Hard
#29 of 32 · 17 games
RBschedule vs the rest of the league: 100 = league-average, >100 softer, <100 tougher; rank 1 = easiest of 32. Projected on 2025 defense. low-confidence early-season estimate. Descriptive context, not a start/sit call.
News & availability
contextrole changesnaps ↓
- Jaylen Warren starts over Rico Dowdle: The incumbent Pittsburgh Steelers running back received the start, but both backs were in a rotation throughout the first half. Don’t read much into the Steelers' backfield rotation: Jaylen Warren st
source ↗role changesnaps ↓
-- Pryor One key fantasy nugget: Running back Rico Dowdle will split touches with Jaylen Warren in the Steelers' backfield.
source ↗- Bijan Robinson 23-yard touchdown gives Falcons 7-3 leadwww.nbcsports.com · 2026-09-13
- Steelers lead Falcons 13-7 at halftimewww.nbcsports.com · 2026-09-13
- NFL Week 1 Recap: Immediate fantasy football takeaways from Sunday’s gameswww.pff.com · 2026-09-13
- T.J. Watt's pick-six powers Steelers to 20-13 victory over Falconswww.nbcsports.com · 2026-09-13
- The Playbook: Shadow Reports, lineup locks and projected scores for Week 1www.espn.com · 2026-09-09
Game log
context2025 by week
Fantasy points, matchups, and our calls
13.6 PPR/g · best 29.1
14
✗
1
17
✓
2
13
✓
3
8
✗
6
20
✓
7
9
✗
8
17
✓
9
11
✓
10
9
✗
11
13
✓
12
12
✓
13
15
✓
14
8
✓
15
29
✓
16
6
✗
17
15
✓
18
Fantasy playoffs · W15–1714.4 PPR/g over 3 gamesabove their 13.6 season averageour calls: 2/3 hit
Our weekly call: Start Flex Sit✓ hit ✗ miss playoff weeks
| Week | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | Snap% | Tgt% | PPR | Half | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W1 | vs ATL | 10 | 46 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 0% | 16% | – | – | – |
| 2025 W18 | vsBAL | 14 | 66 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 37% | 12% | 14.9 | 12.4 | 9.9 |
| 2025 W17 | @CLE | 12 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32% | 0% | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| 2025 W16 | @DET | 14 | 143 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 49% | 5% | 29.1 | 28.1 | 27.1 |
| 2025 W15 | vsMIA | 12 | 33 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 45% | 11% | 7.8 | 6.3 | 4.8 |
| 2025 W14 | @BAL | 8 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 49 | 1 | 50% | 9% | 15.2 | 13.7 | 12.2 |
| 2025 W13 | vsBUF | 10 | 35 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 56% | 18% | 12.4 | 11.4 | 10.4 |
| 2025 W12 | @CHI | 18 | 68 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50% | 0% | 12.8 | 12.8 | 12.8 |
| 2025 W11 | vsCIN | 10 | 62 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 28% | 7% | 8.7 | 7.7 | 6.7 |
| 2025 W10 | @LAC | 14 | 70 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 46% | 7% | 11.1 | 10.1 | 9.1 |
| 2025 W9 | vsIND | 16 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 56% | 6% | 16.9 | 15.9 | 14.9 |
| 2025 W8 | vsGB | 13 | 62 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 62% | 10% | 9.3 | 8.3 | 7.3 |
| 2025 W7 | @CIN | 16 | 127 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 65% | 16% | 19.8 | 17.8 | 15.8 |
| 2025 W6 | vsCLE | 11 | 52 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 53% | 7% | 8.3 | 7.3 | 6.3 |
| 2025 W3 | @NE | 18 | 47 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 80% | 27% | 13.1 | 10.6 | 8.1 |
| 2025 W2 | vsSEA | 14 | 48 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 86 | 0 | 58% | 13% | 17.4 | 15.4 | 13.4 |
| 2025 W1 | @NYJ | 11 | 37 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 45% | 7% | 13.9 | 12.9 | 11.9 |
| 2024 W18 | vsCIN | 6 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38% | 3% | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
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Descriptive per-week usage and PPR output. Situational PBP cuts (red-zone, 3rd-down) and EPA/touch are planned for v2.
Accuracy
our claim65%hit rate
31 graded calls
Hit rate by call type
🟢 50%
of 4 Start calls
🟡 61%
of 18 Flex calls
🔴 78%
of 9 Sit calls
Based on 31 graded calls.
Recent calls
| Week | Opp | Call | Proj | Finish | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | BAL | FLEX | 10.9 | RB14 (14.9) | ✓ |
| 2025 W17 | CLE | FLEX | 12.1 | RB37 (6.4) | ✗ |
| 2025 W16 | DET | FLEX | 11.0 | RB5 (29.1) | ✓ |
| 2025 W15 | MIA | SIT | 10.9 | RB36 (7.8) | ✓ |
| 2025 W14 | BAL | FLEX | 10.0 | RB16 (15.2) | ✓ |
| 2025 W13 | BUF | FLEX | 11.0 | RB23 (12.4) | ✓ |
| 2025 W12 | CHI | FLEX | 11.0 | RB18 (12.8) | ✓ |
| 2025 W11 | CIN | START | 14.0 | RB32 (8.7) | ✗ |
| 2025 W10 | LAC | FLEX | 12.7 | RB23 (11.1) | ✓ |
| 2025 W9 | IND | START | 13.6 | RB9 (16.9) | ✓ |
✓ and ✗ grade where a player finished, not his points: a call hits when he finished startable (top-24 RB/WR, top-12 QB/TE), even if he came in under his projection. How we grade