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Jake Ferguson
TE · DAL
SIT
upcoming
2026 Week 2
Why: projected outside startable range
2026 Wk 2
Reads
analysis
DEEP STAT
Fantasy 2026 Touchdown Regression: The Receivers Due for a Scoring Spike
FFMatchup · Sep 6, 2026
PLAYER OUTLOOK
Javonte Williams Fantasy 2026: Is the Cowboys RB a Steal at RB16?
FFMatchup · Sep 1, 2026
PLAYER OUTLOOK
Jake Ferguson Fantasy 2026: Is the Cowboys TE a Value at TE11?
FFMatchup · Aug 17, 2026
PLAYER OUTLOOK
CeeDee Lamb Fantasy 2026: Can He Stay a Top-5 Receiver Next to George Pickens?
FFMatchup · Aug 3, 2026
Matchup & environment
contextImplied team total
–
Vegas-implied points (game environment)
vs WSH: allows 15.9 PPR/g to TE, rank 5/32 (Soft). Trailing TE PPR allowed per game, weeks before 2026 W2. Descriptive context, never a model input.
DAL targets to TE
DAL routes 23% of pass targets to TE this season (20% over the trailing 8 wk), −0.9 SD vs the league TE average.
Primary passer Dak Prescott. 2025 share of pass targets to TE (137/589). Descriptive context, never a model input.
Draft outlook
contextProj9.5TE12
2026 Week 1 consensus PPR projection (TE12), from tank01 getNFLProjections (consensus, PPR). Descriptive draft-prep context, not a start/sit call.
History vs WSH
contextvs WSH: 5 games, 10.0 PPR avg
Small sample (5 games). Defense roster/scheme turnover means the unit from prior seasons may differ significantly. Descriptive context only, never a model input or driver of the start/sit call.
Usage & opportunity trends
contextSnap %0%
Target share7%
Opportunities2
Snap %, target share and opportunities are descriptive usage: how the offense has deployed this player, not a forecast. Weeks shown: most recent 16.
Schedule strength (SOS)
contextRest of season
102Average
#12 of 32 · 16 games
Fantasy playoffs
98Average
#19 of 32 · 3 games
Full season
101Average
#12 of 32 · 17 games
TEschedule vs the rest of the league: 100 = league-average, >100 softer, <100 tougher; rank 1 = easiest of 32. Projected on 2025 defense. low-confidence early-season estimate. Descriptive context, not a start/sit call.
News & availability
contextout
In red zone work, Prescott had touchdown passes to tight end Jake Ferguson on a shovel pass, a quick throw to Pickens on a slant and a perfectly placed ball to the post that was high enough that only receiver Ryan Flournoy could come down w
source ↗out
In red zone work, Prescott had touchdown passes to tight end Jake Ferguson on a shovel pass, a quick throw to Pickens on a slant and a perfectly placed ball to the post that was high enough that only receiver Ryan Flournoy could come down w
source ↗- PR Roundtable: One Thing Bucs Should Worry About After Week 1www.pewterreport.com · 2026-09-15
- 15 predictions for NFL Week 1: Upset picks, fantasy sleepers, projected stat lines and morewww.espn.com · 2026-09-12
- Start your Bucs, sit Mahomes and a dozen more Week 1 decisionswww.espn.com · 2026-09-11
- The Playbook: Shadow Reports, lineup locks and projected scores for Week 1www.espn.com · 2026-09-09
- 2026 NFL Bold Predictions: Cowboys, Giants, Packers, Arch Manning & Morenfltraderumors.co · 2026-09-09
Game log
context2025 by week
Fantasy points, matchups, and our calls
11.1 PPR/g · best 23.9
7
✓
1
17
✗
2
21
✓
3
17
✓
4
24
✓
5
12
✓
6
22
✓
7
0
✗
8
8
✗
9
12
✗
11
11
✗
12
9
✓
13
11
✓
14
4
✗
15
5
✓
16
8
✓
17
2
✓
18
Fantasy playoffs · W15–175.4 PPR/g over 3 gamesbelow their 11.1 season averageour calls: 2/3 hit
Our weekly call: Start Flex Sit✓ hit ✗ miss playoff weeks
| Week | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | Car | RuYd | Snap% | Tgt% | PPR | Half | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W1 | @NYG | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | – | – | 0% | 7% | – | – | – |
| 2025 W18 | @NYG | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | – | – | 60% | 9% | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 2025 W17 | @WSH | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | – | – | 29% | 6% | 7.6 | 7.1 | 6.6 |
| 2025 W16 | vsLAC | 4 | 3 | 19 | 0 | – | – | 69% | 13% | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 |
| 2025 W15 | vsMIN | 4 | 2 | 16 | 0 | – | – | 71% | 12% | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| 2025 W14 | @DET | 7 | 5 | 58 | 0 | – | – | 80% | 15% | 10.8 | 8.3 | 5.8 |
| 2025 W13 | vsKC | 6 | 5 | 36 | 0 | – | – | 71% | 16% | 8.6 | 6.1 | 3.6 |
| 2025 W12 | vsPHI | 6 | 5 | 60 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 69% | 18% | 11.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 |
| 2025 W11 | @LV | 5 | 4 | 16 | 1 | – | – | 63% | 17% | 11.6 | 9.6 | 7.6 |
| 2025 W9 | vsARI | 7 | 5 | 50 | 0 | – | – | 90% | 19% | 8.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 |
| 2025 W8 | @DEN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | 59% | 3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025 W7 | vsWSH | 7 | 7 | 29 | 2 | – | – | 66% | 24% | 21.9 | 18.4 | 14.9 |
| 2025 W6 | @CAR | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 | – | – | 67% | 9% | 12.3 | 10.8 | 9.3 |
| 2025 W5 | @NYJ | 9 | 7 | 49 | 2 | – | – | 55% | 33% | 23.9 | 20.4 | 16.9 |
| 2025 W4 | vsGB | 7 | 7 | 40 | 1 | – | – | 78% | 19% | 17.0 | 13.5 | 10.0 |
| 2025 W3 | @CHI | 14 | 13 | 82 | 0 | – | – | 57% | 32% | 21.2 | 14.7 | 8.2 |
| 2025 W2 | vsNYG | 12 | 9 | 78 | 0 | – | – | 73% | 23% | 16.8 | 12.3 | 7.8 |
| 2025 W1 | @PHI | 6 | 5 | 23 | 0 | – | – | 77% | 18% | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.3 |
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Descriptive per-week usage and PPR output. Situational PBP cuts (red-zone, 3rd-down) and EPA/touch are planned for v2.
Accuracy
our claim55%hit rate
31 graded calls
Hit rate by call type
🟢 58%
of 12 Start calls
🟡 38%
of 8 Flex calls
🔴 64%
of 11 Sit calls
Based on 31 graded calls.
Recent calls
| Week | Opp | Call | Proj | Finish | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | NYG | SIT | 6.7 | TE55 (1.5) | ✓ |
| 2025 W17 | WSH | SIT | 8.1 | TE23 (7.6) | ✓ |
| 2025 W16 | LAC | SIT | 8.7 | TE32 (4.9) | ✓ |
| 2025 W15 | MIN | FLEX | 9.3 | TE39 (3.6) | ✗ |
| 2025 W14 | DET | FLEX | 9.4 | TE12 (10.8) | ✓ |
| 2025 W13 | KC | SIT | 8.0 | TE18 (8.6) | ✓ |
| 2025 W12 | PHI | SIT | 8.6 | TE8 (11.1) | ✗ |
| 2025 W11 | LV | SIT | 8.3 | TE7 (11.6) | ✗ |
| 2025 W9 | ARI | FLEX | 9.7 | TE24 (8.0) | ✗ |
| 2025 W8 | DEN | START | 11.8 | TE64 (0.0) | ✗ |
✓ and ✗ grade where a player finished, not his points: a call hits when he finished startable (top-24 RB/WR, top-12 QB/TE), even if he came in under his projection. How we grade