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Jake Ferguson
TE · DAL
SIT
upcoming
2026 Week 1
Why: tough matchup
OFFSEASON2026 Wk 1
Matchup & environment
contextImplied team total
25.5
Vegas-implied points (game environment)
vs NYG: allows 11.3 PPR/g to TE, rank 24/32 (Tough). Trailing TE PPR allowed per game, weeks before 2026 W1. Descriptive context, never a model input.
History vs NYG
contextvs NYG: 5 games, 9.2 PPR avg
Small sample (5 games). Defense roster/scheme turnover means the unit from prior seasons may differ significantly. Descriptive context only, never a model input or driver of the start/sit call.
Usage & opportunity trends
contextSnap %60%
Target share9%
Opportunities2
Snap %, target share and opportunities are descriptive usage: how the offense has deployed this player, not a forecast. Weeks shown: most recent 16.
Schedule strength (SOS)
contextRest of season
101Average
#12 of 32 · 17 games
Fantasy playoffs
98Average
#19 of 32 · 3 games
Full season
101Average
#12 of 32 · 17 games
TEschedule vs the rest of the league: 100 = league-average, >100 softer, <100 tougher; rank 1 = easiest of 32. Projected on 2025 defense. low-confidence early-season estimate. Descriptive context, not a start/sit call.
News & availability
context- Cade Otton’s Polarizing Playwww.pewterreport.com · 2026-07-27
- 2026 Fantasy Football: Tight ends to avoid in draftswww.pff.com · 2026-07-24
- PFF Tight End Rankings: The top 32 players ahead of the 2026 NFL seasonwww.pff.com · 2026-07-22
- NFC Notes: Zack Baun, Abdul Carter, Cowboys Roster, Eagles, Giantsnfltraderumors.co · 2026-07-18
- Mock draft: 12-team league can shift your quarterb...www.espn.com · 2026-07-13
Game log
context| Week | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | Car | RuYd | Snap% | Tgt% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | @ NYG | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | – | – | 60% | 9% | 1.5 |
| 2025 W17 | @ WSH | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | – | – | 29% | 6% | 7.6 |
| 2025 W16 | vs LAC | 4 | 3 | 19 | 0 | – | – | 69% | 13% | 4.9 |
| 2025 W15 | vs MIN | 4 | 2 | 16 | 0 | – | – | 71% | 12% | 3.6 |
| 2025 W14 | @ DET | 7 | 5 | 58 | 0 | – | – | 80% | 15% | 10.8 |
| 2025 W13 | vs KC | 6 | 5 | 36 | 0 | – | – | 71% | 16% | 8.6 |
| 2025 W12 | vs PHI | 6 | 5 | 60 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 69% | 18% | 11.1 |
| 2025 W11 | @ LV | 5 | 4 | 16 | 1 | – | – | 63% | 17% | 11.6 |
| 2025 W9 | vs ARI | 7 | 5 | 50 | 0 | – | – | 90% | 19% | 8.0 |
| 2025 W8 | @ DEN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | 59% | 3% | 0.0 |
| 2025 W7 | vsWSH | 7 | 7 | 29 | 2 | – | – | 66% | 24% | 21.9 |
| 2025 W6 | @ CAR | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 | – | – | 67% | 9% | 12.3 |
| 2025 W5 | @ NYJ | 9 | 7 | 49 | 2 | – | – | 55% | 33% | 23.9 |
| 2025 W4 | vs GB | 7 | 7 | 40 | 1 | – | – | 78% | 19% | 17.0 |
| 2025 W3 | @ CHI | 14 | 13 | 82 | 0 | – | – | 57% | 32% | 21.2 |
| 2025 W2 | vsNYG | 12 | 9 | 78 | 0 | – | – | 73% | 23% | 16.8 |
| 2025 W1 | @PHI | 6 | 5 | 23 | 0 | – | – | 77% | 18% | 7.3 |
| 2024 W18 | vsWSH | 4 | 2 | 12 | 0 | – | – | 59% | 12% | 3.2 |
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Descriptive per-week usage and PPR output. Situational PBP cuts (red-zone, 3rd-down) and EPA/touch are planned for v2.
Full history
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Accuracy
our claim55%hit rate
31 graded calls
Hit rate by call type
🟢 58%
of 12 Start calls
🟡 38%
of 8 Flex calls
🔴 64%
of 11 Sit calls
Based on 31 graded calls.
Recent calls
| Week | Opp | Call | Proj | Finish | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | NYG | SIT | 6.7 | TE55 (1.5) | ✓ |
| 2025 W17 | WSH | SIT | 8.1 | TE23 (7.6) | ✓ |
| 2025 W16 | LAC | SIT | 8.7 | TE32 (4.9) | ✓ |
| 2025 W15 | MIN | FLEX | 9.3 | TE39 (3.6) | ✗ |
| 2025 W14 | DET | FLEX | 9.4 | TE12 (10.8) | ✓ |
| 2025 W13 | KC | SIT | 8.0 | TE18 (8.6) | ✓ |
| 2025 W12 | PHI | SIT | 8.6 | TE8 (11.1) | ✗ |
| 2025 W11 | LV | SIT | 8.3 | TE7 (11.6) | ✗ |
| 2025 W9 | ARI | FLEX | 9.7 | TE24 (8.0) | ✗ |
| 2025 W8 | DEN | START | 11.8 | TE64 (0.0) | ✗ |
✓ and ✗ grade where a player finished, not his points: a call hits when he finished startable (top-24 RB/WR, top-12 QB/TE), even if he came in under his projection. How we grade