
Why: high-scoring game, soft matchup
vs MIN: allows 19.3 PPR/g to RB, rank 26/32 (Tough). Trailing RB PPR allowed per game, weeks before 2026 W2. Descriptive context, never a model input.
Primary passer Caleb Williams. 2025 share of pass targets to RB (79/529). Descriptive context, never a model input.
2026 Week 1 consensus PPR projection (RB21), from tank01 getNFLProjections (consensus, PPR). Descriptive draft-prep context, not a start/sit call.
Small sample (5 games). Defense roster/scheme turnover means the unit from prior seasons may differ significantly. Descriptive context only, never a model input or driver of the start/sit call.
Snap %, target share and opportunities are descriptive usage: how the offense has deployed this player, not a forecast. Weeks shown: most recent 16.
RBschedule vs the rest of the league: 100 = league-average, >100 softer, <100 tougher; rank 1 = easiest of 32. Projected on 2025 defense. low-confidence early-season estimate. Descriptive context, not a start/sit call.
He is being drafted ahead of backs like Bucky Irving, Quinshon Judkins and D'Andre Swift, who are either in better offenses with more assured volume or hold outright workhorse roles.
source ↗He is being drafted ahead of backs like Bucky Irving, Quinshon Judkins and D'Andre Swift, who are either in better offenses with more assured volume or hold outright workhorse roles.
source ↗| Week | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | Snap% | Tgt% | PPR | Half | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W1 | @ | 18 | 124 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 4% | – | – | – |
| 2025 W18 | vs | 10 | 40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 58% | 7% | 5.8 | 5.3 | 4.8 |
| 2025 W17 | @ | 9 | 54 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 59% | 8% | 21.9 | 20.9 | 19.9 |
| 2025 W16 | vs | 13 | 58 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 55% | 7% | 9.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 |
| 2025 W15 | vs | 18 | 98 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 56% | 4% | 22.6 | 22.1 | 21.6 |
| 2025 W14 | @ | 13 | 63 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 57% | 14% | 11.2 | 9.7 | 8.2 |
| 2025 W13 | @ | 18 | 125 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 53% | 6% | 20.8 | 20.3 | 19.8 |
| 2025 W12 | vs | 8 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 45% | 3% | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 2025 W11 | @ | 21 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 57% | 4% | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| 2025 W10 | vs | 13 | 80 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 62% | 22% | 14.8 | 12.3 | 9.8 |
| 2025 W8 | @ | 11 | 45 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 49% | 6% | 15.1 | 14.1 | 13.1 |
| 2025 W7 | vs | 19 | 124 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 54% | 4% | 20.8 | 20.3 | 19.8 |
| 2025 W6 | @ | 14 | 108 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 67 | 1 | 56% | 10% | 25.5 | 24.5 | 23.5 |
| 2025 W4 | @ | 14 | 38 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 66% | 17% | 16.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 |
| 2025 W3 | vs | 13 | 33 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 45 | 0 | 61% | 14% | 10.8 | 9.3 | 7.8 |
| 2025 W2 | @ | 12 | 63 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 57% | 9% | 13.9 | 12.4 | 10.9 |
| 2025 W1 | vs | 17 | 53 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 81% | 15% | 9.5 | 8.0 | 6.5 |
| 2024 W18 | @ | 20 | 65 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 79% | 8% | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
Descriptive per-week usage and PPR output. Situational PBP cuts (red-zone, 3rd-down) and EPA/touch are planned for v2.
Based on 33 graded calls.
| Week | Opp | Call | Proj | Finish | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | START | 14.1 | RB44 (5.8) | ✗ | |
| 2025 W17 | START | 13.7 | RB8 (21.9) | ✓ | |
| 2025 W16 | FLEX | 12.5 | RB34 (9.0) | ✗ | |
| 2025 W15 | FLEX | 11.2 | RB7 (22.6) | ✓ | |
| 2025 W14 | FLEX | 11.3 | RB23 (11.2) | ✓ | |
| 2025 W13 | SIT | 10.3 | RB3 (20.8) | ✗ | |
| 2025 W12 | FLEX | 13.6 | RB52 (1.9) | ✗ | |
| 2025 W11 | START | 14.6 | RB31 (9.0) | ✗ | |
| 2025 W10 | START | 15.5 | RB16 (14.8) | ✓ | |
| 2025 W8 | START | 14.6 | RB15 (15.1) | ✓ |
✓ and ✗ grade where a player finished, not his points: a call hits when he finished startable (top-24 RB/WR, top-12 QB/TE), even if he came in under his projection. How we grade