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Davis Mills
QB · HOU
SIT
upcoming
2026 Week 1
Why: projected outside startable range
OFFSEASON2026 Wk 1
Matchup & environment
contextImplied team total
21.5
Vegas-implied points (game environment)
vs BUF: allows 13.1 PPR/g to QB, rank 29/32 (Tough). Trailing QB PPR allowed per game, weeks before 2026 W1. Descriptive context, never a model input.
History vs BUF
contextvs BUF: 1 game, 14.5 PPR avg
| Game | As | Site | C/A | Pass | PaTD | INT | RuYd | RuTD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W12 |  HOU | vs BUF | 16/30 | 153 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 14.5 |
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Small sample (1 game). Defense roster/scheme turnover means the unit from prior seasons may differ significantly. Descriptive context only, never a model input or driver of the start/sit call.
Usage & opportunity trends
contextSnap %35%
Target share0%
Opportunities1
Snap %, target share and opportunities are descriptive usage: how the offense has deployed this player, not a forecast. Weeks shown: most recent 16.
Schedule strength (SOS)
contextRest of season
102Average
#11 of 32 · 17 games
Fantasy playoffs
96Average
#20 of 32 · 3 games
Full season
102Average
#11 of 32 · 17 games
QBschedule vs the rest of the league: 100 = league-average, >100 softer, <100 tougher; rank 1 = easiest of 32. Projected on 2025 defense. low-confidence early-season estimate. Descriptive context, not a start/sit call.
News & availability
context- AFC Notes: Liam Coen, Davis Mills, Jalen Pitre, Jaguars, Texansnfltraderumors.co · 2026-07-20
- NFL quarterbacks are holding the ball longer than ever: The trends behind time to throwwww.pff.com · 2026-07-07
- 2026 Positional Spending: Quarterbacksnfltraderumors.co · 2026-07-03
- 10 takeaways from the 2026 PFF QB Annualwww.pff.com · 2026-07-02
Game log
context| Week | Opp | C/A | Pass | PaTD | INT | RuYd | RuTD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | vs IND | 3/9 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 2.6 |
| 2025 W12 | vsBUF | 16/30 | 153 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 14.5 |
| 2025 W11 | @ TEN | 26/41 | 274 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 16.4 |
| 2025 W10 | vs JAX | 27/45 | 292 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 27.7 |
| 2025 W9 | vs DEN | 17/30 | 137 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 6.2 |
| 2025 W5 | @ BAL | 2/4 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.2 |
| 2024 W18 | @TEN | 12/22 | 128 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 6.2 |
| 2024 W17 | vsBAL | 1/1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | – | – | 0.2 |
| 2024 W6 | @ NE | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | 0.0 |
| 2024 W3 | @ MIN | 7/12 | 79 | 0 | 0 | – | – | 3.2 |
| 2023 W17 | vsTEN | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| 2023 W16 | vs CLE | 15/32 | 149 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 0 | – |
| 2023 W15 | @TEN | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| 2023 W14 | @ NYJ | 1/5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| 2023 W13 | vsDEN | 1/1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| 2023 W11 | vs ARI | 1/1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
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Descriptive per-week usage and PPR output. Situational PBP cuts (red-zone, 3rd-down) and EPA/touch are planned for v2.
Full history
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Accuracy
our claim80%hit rate
10 graded calls
Hit rate by call type
🔴 80%
of 10 Sit calls
Based on 10 graded calls.
Recent calls
| Week | Opp | Call | Proj | Finish | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | IND | SIT | 15.4 | QB33 (2.6) | ✓ |
| 2025 W12 | BUF | SIT | 11.5 | QB14 (14.5) | ✓ |
| 2025 W11 | TEN | SIT | 11.1 | QB9 (16.4) | ✗ |
| 2025 W10 | JAX | SIT | 6.3 | QB1 (27.7) | ✗ |
| 2025 W9 | DEN | SIT | 5.0 | QB27 (6.2) | ✓ |
| 2025 W5 | BAL | SIT | 5.1 | QB30 (1.2) | ✓ |
| 2024 W18 | TEN | SIT | 2.1 | QB28 (6.2) | ✓ |
| 2024 W17 | BAL | SIT | 5.3 | QB38 (0.2) | ✓ |
| 2024 W6 | NE | SIT | 6.0 | QB30 (0.0) | ✓ |
| 2024 W3 | MIN | SIT | 6.0 | QB34 (3.2) | ✓ |
✓ and ✗ grade where a player finished, not his points: a call hits when he finished startable (top-24 RB/WR, top-12 QB/TE), even if he came in under his projection. How we grade