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Sam Darnold
QB · SEA
SIT
upcoming
2026 Week 1
Why: projected outside startable range
OFFSEASON2026 Wk 1
Matchup & environment
contextImplied team total
24.2
Vegas-implied points (game environment)
vs NE: allows 15.1 PPR/g to QB, rank 21/32 (Average). Trailing QB PPR allowed per game, weeks before 2026 W1. Descriptive context, never a model input.
History vs NE
contextNo prior games vs NE in the record.
Usage & opportunity trends
contextSnap %100%
Target share0%
Opportunities6
Signal · descriptiveOpportunity rising, production lagging (last-3-week opportunities up vs the prior three while fantasy output hasn’t followed. Often a buy-low pattern.)
Snap %, target share and opportunities are descriptive usage: how the offense has deployed this player, not a forecast. Weeks shown: most recent 16.
Schedule strength (SOS)
contextRest of season
102Average
#12 of 32 · 17 games
Fantasy playoffs
90Hard
#28 of 32 · 3 games
Full season
102Average
#12 of 32 · 17 games
QBschedule vs the rest of the league: 100 = league-average, >100 softer, <100 tougher; rank 1 = easiest of 32. Projected on 2025 defense. low-confidence early-season estimate. Descriptive context, not a start/sit call.
News & availability
context- Looking Ahead To The 2027 Quarterback Carouselnfltraderumors.co · 2026-07-26
- What's at stake for Vikings this season? Here are ...www.espn.com · 2026-07-24
- The Top Ten Wackiest Outliers in New York Jets Historywww.ganggreennation.com · 2026-07-23
- Former Bucs Player Disses Baker Mayfieldwww.pewterreport.com · 2026-07-21
- NFC Notes: D’Andre Swift, Malcolm Rodriguez, Bears, Lions, Vikingsnfltraderumors.co · 2026-07-21
Game log
context| Week | Opp | C/A | Pass | PaTD | INT | RuYd | RuTD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | @ SF | 20/26 | 198 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 8.8 |
| 2025 W17 | @ CAR | 18/27 | 147 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6.1 |
| 2025 W16 | vs LAR | 22/34 | 270 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 19.5 |
| 2025 W15 | vs IND | 22/36 | 271 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 11.3 |
| 2025 W14 | @ ATL | 20/30 | 249 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 22.3 |
| 2025 W13 | vs MIN | 14/26 | 128 | 0 | 0 | – | – | 3.1 |
| 2025 W12 | @ TEN | 16/26 | 244 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17.7 |
| 2025 W11 | @LAR | 29/44 | 279 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 4.3 |
| 2025 W10 | vs ARI | 10/12 | 178 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 4.9 |
| 2025 W9 | @ WSH | 21/24 | 330 | 4 | 1 | – | – | 27.2 |
| 2025 W7 | vs HOU | 17/31 | 213 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8.6 |
| 2025 W6 | @ JAX | 16/27 | 295 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20.0 |
| 2025 W5 | vs TB | 28/34 | 341 | 4 | 1 | – | – | 27.6 |
| 2025 W4 | @ARI | 18/26 | 242 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 16.1 |
| 2025 W3 | vs NO | 14/18 | 218 | 2 | 0 | – | – | 16.7 |
| 2025 W2 | @ PIT | 22/33 | 295 | 2 | 2 | – | – | 15.8 |
| 2025 W1 | vsSF | 16/23 | 150 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 5.4 |
| 2024 W18 | @ DET | 18/41 | 166 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 7.6 |
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Descriptive per-week usage and PPR output. Situational PBP cuts (red-zone, 3rd-down) and EPA/touch are planned for v2.
Full history
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Accuracy
our claim53%hit rate
34 graded calls
Hit rate by call type
🟢 50%
of 4 Start calls
🟡 54%
of 13 Flex calls
🔴 53%
of 17 Sit calls
Based on 34 graded calls.
Recent calls
| Week | Opp | Call | Proj | Finish | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | SF | FLEX | 16.4 | QB23 (8.8) | ✗ |
| 2025 W17 | CAR | SIT | 15.6 | QB29 (6.1) | ✓ |
| 2025 W16 | LAR | SIT | 14.5 | QB9 (19.5) | ✗ |
| 2025 W15 | IND | SIT | 15.5 | QB26 (11.3) | ✓ |
| 2025 W14 | ATL | SIT | 13.9 | QB5 (22.3) | ✗ |
| 2025 W13 | MIN | SIT | 15.9 | QB30 (3.1) | ✓ |
| 2025 W12 | TEN | SIT | 15.5 | QB8 (17.7) | ✗ |
| 2025 W11 | LAR | SIT | 15.4 | QB30 (4.3) | ✓ |
| 2025 W10 | ARI | FLEX | 17.8 | QB26 (4.9) | ✗ |
| 2025 W9 | WSH | FLEX | 17.0 | QB6 (27.2) | ✓ |
✓ and ✗ grade where a player finished, not his points: a call hits when he finished startable (top-24 RB/WR, top-12 QB/TE), even if he came in under his projection. How we grade