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Patrick Mahomes
QB · KC
FLEX
upcoming
2026 Week 2
Why: heavy usage, high-scoring game, soft matchup
2026 Wk 2
Reads
analysis
PLAYER OUTLOOK
Xavier Worthy Fantasy 2026: Is the Chiefs Speedster a Late-Round Buy?
FFMatchup · Sep 5, 2026
PLAYER OUTLOOK
Kenneth Walker Fantasy 2026: What His Move to Kansas City Means for His RB10 Price
FFMatchup · Aug 25, 2026
PLAYER OUTLOOK
Travis Kelce Fantasy 2026: Is the Chiefs TE Still Worth a TE9 Price?
FFMatchup · Aug 16, 2026
Matchup & environment
contextImplied team total
–
Vegas-implied points (game environment)
vs IND: allows 16.9 PPR/g to QB, rank 15/32 (Average). Trailing QB PPR allowed per game, weeks before 2026 W2. Descriptive context, never a model input.
Draft outlook
contextProj16.7QB24
2026 Week 1 consensus PPR projection (QB24), from tank01 getNFLProjections (consensus, PPR). Descriptive draft-prep context, not a start/sit call.
History vs IND
contextvs IND: 1 game, 17.1 PPR avg
| Game | As | Site | C/A | Pass | PaTD | INT | RuYd | RuTD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W12 |  KC | vs IND | 29/46 | 352 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 17.1 |
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Small sample (1 game). Defense roster/scheme turnover means the unit from prior seasons may differ significantly. Descriptive context only, never a model input or driver of the start/sit call.
Usage & opportunity trends
contextSnap %92%
Target share0%
Opportunities2
Snap %, target share and opportunities are descriptive usage: how the offense has deployed this player, not a forecast. Weeks shown: most recent 16.
Schedule strength (SOS)
contextRest of season
96Hard
#28 of 32 · 16 games
Fantasy playoffs
93Hard
#24 of 32 · 3 games
Full season
95Hard
#29 of 32 · 17 games
QBschedule vs the rest of the league: 100 = league-average, >100 softer, <100 tougher; rank 1 = easiest of 32. Projected on 2025 defense. low-confidence early-season estimate. Descriptive context, not a start/sit call.
News & availability
contextrole change
Justin Fields has been a starting quarterback for most of his NFL career, but when he was traded to the Chiefs this offseason, he knew he was going to Kansas City to back up Patrick Mahomes. “I’m just trying to practice on that, and really
source ↗role changesnaps ↑
-- Patrick Mahomes is expected to start the Kansas City Chiefs' season opener Monday against the Denver Broncos, according to coach Andy Reid.
source ↗- NFL Week 1 statistical review: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncoswww.pff.com · 2026-09-15
- Patrick Mahomes: Rushing TD gave me confidence I could be myselfwww.nbcsports.com · 2026-09-15
- Walker stars in Chiefs debut while scrambling Mahomes shows work 'paid off'www.espn.com · 2026-09-15
- Chiefs' Kelce passes Witten, now No. 2 all time on receiving list for TEswww.espn.com · 2026-09-15
- 2026 NFL Power Rankings: Week 2nfltraderumors.co · 2026-09-15
Game log
context2025 by week
Fantasy points, matchups, and our calls
20.4 PPR/g · best 31.5
26
✓
1
22
✓
2
13
✗
3
27
✓
4
27
✓
5
32
✓
6
26
✓
7
23
✓
8
11
✗
9
13
✗
11
17
✓
12
29
✓
13
6
✗
14
13
✗
15
Fantasy playoffs · W15–1713.1 PPR/g over 1 gamebelow their 20.4 season averageour calls: 0/1 hit
Our weekly call: Start Flex Sit✓ hit ✗ miss playoff weeks
| Week | Opp | C/A | Pass | PaTD | INT | RuYd | RuTD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W15 | vsLAC | 16/28 | 189 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 13.1 |
| 2025 W14 | vsHOU | 14/33 | 160 | 0 | 3 | 59 | 0 | 6.3 |
| 2025 W13 | @DAL | 23/34 | 261 | 4 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 29.4 |
| 2025 W12 | vsIND | 29/46 | 352 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 17.1 |
| 2025 W11 | @DEN | 29/45 | 276 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13.3 |
| 2025 W9 | @BUF | 15/34 | 250 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 10.5 |
| 2025 W8 | vsWSH | 25/34 | 299 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 23.0 |
| 2025 W7 | vsLV | 26/35 | 286 | 3 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 26.2 |
| 2025 W6 | vsDET | 22/30 | 257 | 3 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 31.5 |
| 2025 W5 | @JAX | 29/41 | 318 | 1 | 1 | 60 | 1 | 26.7 |
| 2025 W4 | vsBAL | 25/37 | 270 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 27.3 |
| 2025 W3 | @NYG | 22/37 | 224 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13.2 |
| 2025 W2 | vsPHI | 16/29 | 187 | 1 | 1 | 66 | 1 | 22.1 |
| 2025 W1 | @LAC | 24/39 | 258 | 1 | 0 | 57 | 1 | 26.0 |
| 2024 W17 | @ PIT | 29/38 | 320 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 26.0 |
| 2024 W16 | vsHOU | 28/41 | 260 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 23.7 |
| 2024 W15 | @ CLE | 19/38 | 159 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 15.8 |
| 2024 W14 | vsLAC | 24/37 | 210 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 14.1 |
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Descriptive per-week usage and PPR output. Situational PBP cuts (red-zone, 3rd-down) and EPA/touch are planned for v2.
Accuracy
our claim53%hit rate
30 graded calls
Hit rate by call type
🟢 54%
of 13 Start calls
🟡 50%
of 16 Flex calls
🔴 100%
of 1 Sit call
Based on 30 graded calls.
Recent calls
| Week | Opp | Call | Proj | Finish | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W15 | LAC | FLEX | 16.9 | QB24 (13.1) | ✗ |
| 2025 W14 | HOU | FLEX | 16.3 | QB24 (6.3) | ✗ |
| 2025 W13 | DAL | START | 17.7 | QB1 (29.4) | ✓ |
| 2025 W12 | IND | FLEX | 17.5 | QB11 (17.1) | ✓ |
| 2025 W11 | DEN | START | 18.6 | QB14 (13.3) | ✗ |
| 2025 W9 | BUF | START | 21.1 | QB22 (10.5) | ✗ |
| 2025 W8 | WSH | START | 21.7 | QB10 (23.0) | ✓ |
| 2025 W7 | LV | START | 21.2 | QB5 (26.2) | ✓ |
| 2025 W6 | DET | START | 19.8 | QB1 (31.5) | ✓ |
| 2025 W5 | JAX | START | 18.9 | QB4 (26.7) | ✓ |
✓ and ✗ grade where a player finished, not his points: a call hits when he finished startable (top-24 RB/WR, top-12 QB/TE), even if he came in under his projection. How we grade